Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Alberto Vindas-Quesada Author-Name-First: Alberto Author-Name-Last: Vindas-Quesada Author-Email: vindasqa@bccr.fi.cr Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economic Research, Central Bank of Costa Rica Author-Name: Carlos Monge-Badilla Author-Name-First: Carlos Author-Name-Last: Monge-Badilla Author-Email: mongebc@bccr.fi.cr Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economic Research, Central Bank of Costa Rica Title: Combination of Potential Output Estimates With a Bayesian Method Abstract: In this paper, we calculated the potential output for the Costa Rican economy. First, we applied several different methods to calculate this non-observable variable, such as the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, Hodrick-Prescott filter, production function, Kalman filter, and SVAR. Then, we combined the results of these methods using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and a Phillips curve. Finally, we obtained optimal weights for each estimated potential product and estimated an indicator of the potential output series. ***Resumen: En el documento se realizan distintas metodologías de estimación del producto potencial para la economía costarricense. Dentro de los métodos que se utilizan para estimar esta variable no observable, se pueden mencionar la descomposición Beveridge-Nelson, el filtro Hodrick Prescott, la función de producción, el filtro de Kalman y el VAR estructural (SVAR). Los resultados de estos modelos se promedian empleando el método de Ponderación bayesiana de modelos (Bayesian Model Averaging, BMA), por medio de una curva de Phillips, con el fin de determinar los pesos óptimos para la obtención de un único indicador de producto potencial. Length: 26 pages  Creation-Date: 2015-07  Publication-Status: Published   File-URL: https://repositorioinvestigaciones.bccr.fi.cr/handle/20.500.12506/86   File-Format: Application/pdf  Number: 1501  Classification-JEL: C11, C32, E50 Keywords: Potencial product; Averaging Bayesian; Producto potencial, Ponderación, Bayesiana, Kalman, SVAR Handle: RePEc:apk:doctra:1501