Browsing by Author "Muñoz-Barrantes, Marta Isabel"
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Results Per Page
Sort Options
- Determinación de modelos para la extracción de señales y el pronóstico de las series trimestrales de la oferta y demanda globalesCampos-Villalobos, Elvia; Kikut-Valverde, Ana Cecilia; Muñoz-Barrantes, Marta Isabel; Porras-Jara, Alexander; Rocha-Bonilla, Lizette María; Rodríguez-Mora, MargaritaThe main objective of this study is to estimate the unobservable components of the Costa Rican time series of global supply, global demand and their components using ARIMA models, in order to assess about the short term behavior of the real sector, additionally it allows the Central Bank to obtain better forecasts of these series.We use the recent available quarterly series of the global supply and demand, in constant colones of 1991, for the period from the first quarter of 1991 to the fourth quarter 2000. We study 35 variables.This is the first time that the software TRAMO/SEATS for Windows is used in the Costa Rican Central Bank. Due to the fact that this procedure is based in models, it allows us to make statistic inference about the estimations obtained from the adjusted models for each component. Additionally, we apply the direct and indirect seasonal adjustment to some variables.From this study we can conclude that the TRAMO/SEATS software constitute an easy, flexible and powerful tool in the time series analysis. In general, this package allowed to discriminate among alternative models and decompositions. Too, we observe a satisfactory final decomposition. But, it is important to make an economic explication for the seasonal adjusted series. Finally, the results of the seasonal adjustment indicates that the indirect method was significant for two variables (agriculture and industry).