Notas Técnicas
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Browsing Notas Técnicas by Author "Alfaro-Ureña, Alonso"
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- Una aproximación del tipo de cambio real para Costa Rica, enfoque BEER 2007-2022This paper describes the methodology and results of estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) using the reduced-form approach known as the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER). The real exchange rate (RER) equation is estimated with quarterly data in the period between I-2007 and IV-2022, which coincides with the adoption of exchange rate flexibility regimes in Costa Rica. The results indicate that the path of the ERER is explained by the evolution of its fundamentals: labor productivity, government expenditure, international investment position, terms of trade and the difference among local and external interest rates. Improvements in labor productivity, increases in Government spending and increases in the spread of local and external interest rates are correlated with downward movements in the equilibrium path of the RER (real appreciations). On the other hand, the more negative result in the international investment position and a fall in terms of trade explains movements towards real depreciations. During the period of analysis, there is no evidence of RER deviations from its equilibrium level beyond the coherence zone determined. Therefore, the variations on the ERER trajectory are consistent with the behavior of its fundamentals.
- Beneficios intangibles de la Inversión Directa (ID) en Zonas Francas en Costa Rica: Resumen de resultadosThis paper quantifies intangible benefits that arise from the interaction of multinational companies in the Free Trade Zone regime with their workers and with Costa Rican capital companies (domestic). We quantify this by comparing those benefits to the ones of multinationals outside this regime. Specifically, we calculate the increase in productivity that domestic firms experience from supplying multinationals, and the additional salary (or wage premium) experienced by multinational workers compared to what they would have received by working in domestic companies. We find that those new suppliers of multinationals in the Free Trade Zone experience a 23% increase in their productivity during the fourth year after starting the supply relationship, while those that supplied multinationals outside this regime only received a 4% productivity increase. Likewise, the wage premium of the multinational company outside the Free Trade Zone is 8,5%, while the wage premium of multinationals in the Free Trade Zone is 18,4%.
- Criptoactivos: análisis e implicaciones desde la perspectiva del Banco Central de Costa RicaThough originally created as a way to avoid financial institutions, the development and wider use around the globe of certain type of assets called cryptocurrencies has been facilitated by an increased interest in new ways to accumulate value. New cryptographic technology, wider access to the internet, and an increase in processing capacity has contributed to this process. Some characteristics of this type of assets allow it to serve as means of exchange and store of value, which are characteristics shared with fiat currency minted by central banks. Those shared characteristics may confuse final users about potential uses and risks for personal financial decisions. The purpose of this technical note is to bring light in about the technological process involved in the creation of these assets, and the possible implications associated with its use.
- Relación entre los precios de las materias primas y la inflación en Costa RicaThis paper analyzes empirically the relationship between the variations of international commodity prices and inflation in Costa Rica in the period from January 2000 to December 2021. The pass-through of the commodity prices to the consumer prices is analyzed through the supply chain using the consumer price index (IPC), the manufacture producer price index (IPP-MAN) and the commodity price index (IP-MPi). A recursive model of Autoregressive Vectors allows us to represent the relationship between these variables. The results indicate that the pass-through from commodity prices to inflation is small. For example, an increase of 10 percentage points in the variation of the prices of commodities in the international market will increase inflation on 0.27 p.p. after six months. The review of the relationship according to groups of items of the CPI that have or do not have regulated prices suggests that the pass-through to domestic prices occurs mainly on the group of goods and services with regulated price. In addition, there is evidence of heterogeneity in price response by subclasses of items.
- Resultados de las encuestas realizadas para el proyecto de investigación: “Los efectos de unirse a las cadenas de suministro de multinacionales: nueva evidencia de encadenamientos entre empresas”This document is a summary and complement of the main research project “The Effects of Joining Multinational Supply Chains: New Evidence from Firm-to-Firm Linkages”. In that paper we analyze the effect in local firms whenever they become first time suppliers to multinational corporations. We find that there is a significant and persistent increase on measures of productivity, sales, number of employees, and sales to other firms. The goal of this document is to present and analyze with greater detail the qualitative data obtained to complement the empirical results of the main paper. One of the methodologies employed in that research project was the use of surveys to domestic and multinational firms that allowed us to understand the actions set in motion before and after a firm-to-firm linkage occurred. Some of the results from the surveys are presented in the main document, but not all of the information collected is discussed in length. This complementary document was produced to discuss those additional results and was shared with the institutions and firms (domestic and multinational) that collaborated in the research process. As an introduction, this document reviews the research subject and the questions answered in the main document. Additionally, the data and results are described and discussed. The main research paper to which these results refer to can be found as “Documento de trabajo No. 002 | 2019: The Effects of Joining Multinational Supply Chains: New Evidence from Firm-to-Firm Linkages”.