Browsing by Author "Azofeifa-Villalobos, Ana Georgina"
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- Competitividad internacional de Costa Rica: Análisis de los resultados del CANAzofeifa-Villalobos, Ana Georgina; Rojas-Guerrero, Rosilia; Salas-V., Yessenia; Solano-Navarro, Mario GeovannyThis paper analyzes the results of the competitiveness array and its implications for Costa Rican Economy, after applying the Competitive Analysis of Nations (CAN), a software for international trade database. This instrument makes a diagnosis of the competitiveness situation in Costa Rica and it’s a fundamental base, so it can be make a competitiveness indicator for the economy.The results showed that the thirteen selected products represented a 45,3% of the 1998 total exports. Additionally, 17,2% of these products were classify as dynamic and competitive sectors, 48,9% are steady and no competitive sectors and 5.8% are steady and competitive. Finally, the dynamics products that are no competitive represent a 28.1%. Additionally, the adaptability index shows that the economy has decrease its level of specialization and its market share. This result indicates that these products does not have a good adaptation to the market conditions.
- Costa Rica: estimación del Déficit Fiscal estructural y cíclicoIn this article, a methodology used by CEPAL to estimate the structural and cyclical fiscal deficit is applied to the Costa Rican case for the 1983-1999 period. It is a useful tool to evaluate the fiscal policy performance in the medium term. The methodology tries to identify those deficit’s components that respond directly to the budgetary authorities policies. The structural deficit is calculated by substranting from the overall budgetary balance the bussines cycle effect, which is denominated cyclical deficit. Estimated data show that the structural component is the main aspect that influences fiscal disequilibria for both, Central Government and Public Nonfinancial Sector. They also show that the average size of the Central Government`s structural deficit in Costa Rica is the highest compared with some Latin American economies and is highly volatile. Finally, calculations of primary structural deficit show that Internal Debt is the main problem of Costa Rican fiscal deficit.
- Implementación del Modelo RMSM-X para Costa Rica: Principales aspectos metodológicos del módulo RXAzofeifa-Villalobos, Ana Georgina; Barquero, Luvy; Blanco, Carlos; Porras, Daniel; Rodríguez, Mayra; Rojas-Sánchez, Mario AlfredoThis paper shows the interinstitutional group’s advances of the implementation process of the World Bank’s economic structural model, known as Revised Minimum Standard Model Extended (RMSM-X). The interinstitutional group is conformed by members of the staff of Banco Central de Costa Rica, Ministerio de Hacienda and Consejo Monetario Centroamericano. The document presents the main technical and conceptual aspects of the model and makes an extensive review of the basic data in order to adequate it to the guidelines of the accounting framework of the recent versions of international standards of macroeconomic statistics. The RMSM-X model is built up in electronic sheets of Excel and it is designed for simulation exercises. In addition, this model is useful in forecasting, monitoring and for the analysis of financial flows in developing economies. Specifically, the basic model contains four economic agents or sectors: Public, Private, Financial and Foreign. In addition, the model forecasts detailed trade accounts and foreign debt flows and stocks, so it can be used to produce a comprehensive outlook for any developing country. With the appropriate adaptations for Central American economies, the model will be used by the Central Banks and Ministers of Finance for macroeconomic consistency, policy making and forecasting, under the guidance of the Consejo Monetario Centroamericano and the technical assistance of the World Bank.
- Propuesta metodológica para estimar el tamaño de un pedido de billetes para la economía costarricenseAzofeifa-Villalobos, Ana Georgina; Sancho-B., Bernal; Solís-Ortiz, Luis Eduardo; Zúñiga-Durán, Mainor A.This paper presents a methodological proposal to estimate the requesting size of Central Bank notes (¢10000 bills, ¢5000 bills, etc.) for the Costa Rican economy. The estimates consider growth in the bills demand (caused by consumption changes), continual replacement of old or damaged bills and bank vaults inventories. We develop a demand model for value of bills in circulation, as a function of lagged GDP, expected inflation rate and labor force, using OLS. The results obtained were robust, and forecast performance was evaluated trough standard methods and applying the model to a real case. Also, the calculation of replacement rates by denomination and bills inventories were improved. Finally, we made a qualitative analysis of other factors that may affect the volume of bills request.
- Propuesta metodológica para estimar el tamaño de un pedido de monedas para la economía costarricenseAzofeifa-Villalobos, Ana Georgina; Mesén-Fernández, Luisana; Montero-Gamboa, Renato; Zúñiga-Durán, Mainor A.This paper presents a methodological proposal to estimate the required size of coin purchases for the Costa Rican economy by the Central Bank. The proposal considers the estimation of a demand function for coins. The approach to find the coin demand pattern was based on the “circulating coins value” variable. The model estimates the coins demand value both as a function of the consumer price index (CPI), and of GDP in nominal terms with a lagged period, and, the method used was OLS after applying a logarithmic transformation to both variables. Other factors considered by the methodological proposal are the following: the continuous replacement of old or damaged currency, the “non return” (which refers to the economic agent’s behavior that involves other types of currency uses which differ from its function as an exchange instrument in economic transactions), the bank vaults coins inventories, and finally, the effect resulting from the substitution of notes for coins. The results obtained were robust, and the forecast performance was evaluated through standard methods and applying the model to a real case situation.