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Browsing Documentos académicos by Subject "B4- Metodología económica"
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- Dinámica inflacionaria y la nueva curva de Phillips Neokeynesiana en Costa RicaThis paper reviews the historic evolution of the literature on the Phillips Curve, highlighting the significant changes experienced over time, and estimates a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) specification for Costa Rica using quarterly data over the period 1989-2002. Our literature review reveals an on going debate in relation with the existence of a Phillips Curve. The empirical evidence gathered in this document proves the applicability of the NKPC specification for Costa Rica. Our estimates show that the Phillips Curve is relatively elastic in the short run, indicating that expansive monetary policies can stimulate output growth in the short run at the cost of higher inflation and a sub-optimal monetary policy. But, in the long run, the NKPC is perfectly inelastic, leaving almost no space for such dynamically inconsistent policies, since they would prove ineffective in terms of output and absolutely inflationary according to the “Inflation Accelerator Principle”. An implication of the large effect that devaluation has (according to our estimates) on inflationary expectations, is that setting the exchange rate peg at a level consistent with inflationary targets is a fast and effective way of controlling inflation. Hence, assuming some slack in the international monetary reserves level and the current account deficit, reducing the devaluation rate is a viable option to reduce inflation in the short run, ceteris paribus, even if this implies pressures on the current account and eventual losses in monetary reserves.
- Implementación del Modelo RMSM-X para Costa Rica: Principales aspectos metodológicos del módulo RXAzofeifa-Villalobos, Ana Georgina; Barquero, Luvy; Blanco, Carlos; Porras, Daniel; Rodríguez, Mayra; Rojas-Sánchez, Mario AlfredoThis paper shows the interinstitutional group’s advances of the implementation process of the World Bank’s economic structural model, known as Revised Minimum Standard Model Extended (RMSM-X). The interinstitutional group is conformed by members of the staff of Banco Central de Costa Rica, Ministerio de Hacienda and Consejo Monetario Centroamericano. The document presents the main technical and conceptual aspects of the model and makes an extensive review of the basic data in order to adequate it to the guidelines of the accounting framework of the recent versions of international standards of macroeconomic statistics. The RMSM-X model is built up in electronic sheets of Excel and it is designed for simulation exercises. In addition, this model is useful in forecasting, monitoring and for the analysis of financial flows in developing economies. Specifically, the basic model contains four economic agents or sectors: Public, Private, Financial and Foreign. In addition, the model forecasts detailed trade accounts and foreign debt flows and stocks, so it can be used to produce a comprehensive outlook for any developing country. With the appropriate adaptations for Central American economies, the model will be used by the Central Banks and Ministers of Finance for macroeconomic consistency, policy making and forecasting, under the guidance of the Consejo Monetario Centroamericano and the technical assistance of the World Bank.