Reservas internacionales netas adecuadas y óptimas en Costa Rica

Abstract

This research analyzes the level of international reserves for Costa Rica from the first quarter of 2015 to the third quarter of 2020. Both the adequate reserves approach and the optimal reserves approach are used. In the approach of adequate reserves, the indicators of imports, monetary aggregates, external debt service, the Wijnholds and Kapteyn (2001) indicator, and the metric of adequate reserves of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are considered. In the optimal reserves approach, a model is proposed that contemplates an economy with deposits in foreign currency, terms of trade, and endogenous probability of balance of payments crisis. In general, it is concluded that international reserves in Costa Rica are at levels considered adequate according to the five indicators analyzed. Likewise, reserves are at levels close to optimal. Based on the projections of the Macroeconomic Program 2021-2022, it is estimated that during 2021 and 2022, reserves would meet the levels suggested by the indicators for most of the quarters, although sometimes the gap between recommended reserve levels and projected reserves could reach a maximum of up to 1,66 pp of GDP.