Un modelo de economía abierta para la estimación de variables no observables en Costa Rica

Abstract

This study develops an open-economy structural model for Costa Rica to estimate key latent variables for monetary policy. Building upon the estimation by Segura-Rodriguez (2024), this model endogenizes the evolution of the real exchange rate, incorporates the duality between the regular regime and the special production regimes, and includes the estimation of long-term inflation as an anchor for inflationary behavior. The estimation, conducted using Bayesian techniques, reveals that the regular regime is the primary transmission channel for local monetary policy and the main determinant of both the neutral real interest rate and the long-term real exchange rate. In contrast, the special regime, driven by external factors, exhibits higher potential growth and generates positive long-term linkages toward the regular regime. The neutral real interest rate is estimated to be near 1,60% for the most recent periods, similar to the results obtained by Segura-Rodriguez (2024). Furthermore, evidence indicates that long-term inflation has hovered around 3% for approximately a decade. A counterfactual exercise for the 2023-2024 period shows that a looser monetary policy stance would have stimulated local production and mitigated the sharp currency appreciation, while having a significant, though small, impact on the price level.