Browsing by Author "Zúñiga-Durán, Mainor A."
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- Propuesta metodológica para estimar el tamaño de un pedido de billetes para la economía costarricenseAzofeifa-Villalobos, Ana Georgina; Sancho-B., Bernal; Solís-Ortiz, Luis Eduardo; Zúñiga-Durán, Mainor A.This paper presents a methodological proposal to estimate the requesting size of Central Bank notes (¢10000 bills, ¢5000 bills, etc.) for the Costa Rican economy. The estimates consider growth in the bills demand (caused by consumption changes), continual replacement of old or damaged bills and bank vaults inventories. We develop a demand model for value of bills in circulation, as a function of lagged GDP, expected inflation rate and labor force, using OLS. The results obtained were robust, and forecast performance was evaluated trough standard methods and applying the model to a real case. Also, the calculation of replacement rates by denomination and bills inventories were improved. Finally, we made a qualitative analysis of other factors that may affect the volume of bills request.
- Propuesta metodológica para estimar el tamaño de un pedido de monedas para la economía costarricenseAzofeifa-Villalobos, Ana Georgina; Mesén-Fernández, Luisana; Montero-Gamboa, Renato; Zúñiga-Durán, Mainor A.This paper presents a methodological proposal to estimate the required size of coin purchases for the Costa Rican economy by the Central Bank. The proposal considers the estimation of a demand function for coins. The approach to find the coin demand pattern was based on the “circulating coins value” variable. The model estimates the coins demand value both as a function of the consumer price index (CPI), and of GDP in nominal terms with a lagged period, and, the method used was OLS after applying a logarithmic transformation to both variables. Other factors considered by the methodological proposal are the following: the continuous replacement of old or damaged currency, the “non return” (which refers to the economic agent’s behavior that involves other types of currency uses which differ from its function as an exchange instrument in economic transactions), the bank vaults coins inventories, and finally, the effect resulting from the substitution of notes for coins. The results obtained were robust, and the forecast performance was evaluated through standard methods and applying the model to a real case situation.