Browsing by Author "Sancho-B., Bernal"
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- Propuesta metodológica para estimar el tamaño de un pedido de billetes para la economía costarricenseAzofeifa-Villalobos, Ana Georgina; Sancho-B., Bernal; Solís-Ortiz, Luis Eduardo; Zúñiga-Durán, Mainor A.This paper presents a methodological proposal to estimate the requesting size of Central Bank notes (¢10000 bills, ¢5000 bills, etc.) for the Costa Rican economy. The estimates consider growth in the bills demand (caused by consumption changes), continual replacement of old or damaged bills and bank vaults inventories. We develop a demand model for value of bills in circulation, as a function of lagged GDP, expected inflation rate and labor force, using OLS. The results obtained were robust, and forecast performance was evaluated trough standard methods and applying the model to a real case. Also, the calculation of replacement rates by denomination and bills inventories were improved. Finally, we made a qualitative analysis of other factors that may affect the volume of bills request.