Browsing by Author "Vindas-Quesada, Alberto José"
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- Análisis cuantitativo de tasas de interés para reemplazar la LiborInternational financial authorities announced that by the end of 2021 the Libor interest rate calculation will be discontinued. This rate is also used for several operations in dollars in the Costa Rican market, therefore financial authorities decided that intermediaries should make their own studies, following best practices, to decide which rate to select as a substitute as a reference in their contracts. However, given the imminent discontinuation of the Libor, an additional challenge arises for the Central Bank of Costa Rica given that articles 52 and 80 of its Law make an explicit reference to the Libor rate for specific operations with the financial system. This paper analyzes the statistical characteristics of a set of interest rates that could eventually substitute the Libor rate. The analysis pays special attention to study cointegration, correlation and differences between the Libor and its possible substitutes. We found that the one-month average for the SOFR rate is the indicator that shows the best statistical properties if compared with the one- and six-month Libor.
- Combinación de estimaciones del producto potencial con un método bayesianoIn this paper, we calculated the potential output for the Costa Rican economy. First, we applied several different methods to calculate this non-observable variable, such as the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, Hodrick-Prescott filter, production function, Kalman filter, and SVAR. Then, we combined the results of these methods using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and a Phillips curve. Finally, we obtained optimal weights for each estimated potential product and estimated an indicator of the potential output series.
- Indicadores de inflación subyacente: una actualizaciónBarrantes-Castillo, Kevin; Brenes-Soto, Carlos; Herra-Leandro, Melissa; Jiménez-Montero, Susan; Vindas-Quesada, Alberto JoséIn this document, we update the five core inflation indicators that the Central Bank of Costa Rica publishes, using data up to April 2021. We evaluate several statistical properties that core inflation indicators should satisfy. The structural break in inflation, identified after September 2021, resulted in adjustments in four of the indicators.
- Transformación estructural y productividad sectorial en Costa RicaThis paper documents the process of structural transformation in Costa Rica during six decades starting in 1950. It is widely documented that countries that grow in terms of income have a shift of employment away from the agricultural sector to the manufacturing and services sector. This same pattern can be observed in Costa Rica. However, this process has some peculiarities that will be discussed. This paper presents counterfactual exercises that use the model presented in Duarte & Restuccia (2010). Depending on the counterfactual, the model has been calibrated to match the data for the Costa Rican economy or the United States.
- Validación del modelo ARMA para la proyección de la inflación en CRThe periodic revision of the inflation forecasting models is one of the good practices of central banking. In this document a validation of the univariable ARMA model for short-term forecasting is done, where an alternative specification is suggested over the one currently used.
- Volatilidad del tipo de cambio nominal en Costa RicaThis technical note makes a recount of the volatility of the exchange rate of the Costa Rican colon with respect to the US dollar since 1983. This is done through two common volatility measures: a stardard deviation and a GARCH volatility estimate. Historically, eight high volatility episodes are identified. These happened mostly during the exchange rate band regime, which is also the regime that showed higher volatility, on average. To complement this analysis, the volatility measures are compared to a group of 154 additional currencies. This leads to the conclusion that only two of the high volatility episodes can be considered of high volatility, internationally. In addition, that most of the time, there are more currencies showing a higher volatility than the colon than currencies showing lower volatility.