Browsing by Author "Jiménez-Montero, Susan"
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- Análisis de productividad en Costa Rica: un enfoque microeconómicoThis paper analyzes the evolution of productivity of the formal sector in Costa Rica using microdata for the period 2005-2021. Manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and agricultural sectors are examined with special emphasis. Our results suggest that total factor productivity (TFP) has exhibited an upward trend since 2015. According to our estimations, firms in manufacturing and those under the Free Trade Zone regime have boosted productivity growth in recent years. However, productivity growth does not seem to be explained by a single economic sector. Similar to our findings in manufacturing, trade and agriculture show a dynamic where firms that experienced increases in their productivity are also the ones increasing their market share, a signal of efficiency. Finally, the estimated productivity exhibits desirable characteristics: it is positively correlated with firms´ export status, the degree of technological sophistication, and the level of socio-economic development and competitiveness of Costa Rica's municipalities.
- Los efectos de la crisis financiera de 2008 en el tipo de cambio real de equilibrio en Costa RicaWe study how the changes in international trade flows observed after the 2008 financial crisis affected the Costa Rican balance of payments accounts, and how the equilibrium real exchange rate reacted to these changes. To fulfill this objective, we estimate long term relations between the balance of payments accounts and their fundamentals. In these estimations, we include a structural change variable to capture the financial crisis effects on the behavior of these variables. Further, we estimate the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate by using the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate (FEER) and Desired Equilibrium Exchange Rate (DEER) methodologies. The results show that the exports and imports elasticity with respect to the real exchange rate decreased after the crisis. Consequently, by considering the effect of the crisis, we conclude that the real exchange rate falldown observed between 2008 and 2011 can be explained by movementes in its equilibrium value. However, between 2012 and 2016 we observed a small real appreciation, which can be associated to sovereign debt issues in international markets during that period.
- Indicadores de inflación subyacente: una actualizaciónBarrantes-Castillo, Kevin; Brenes-Soto, Carlos; Herra-Leandro, Melissa; Jiménez-Montero, Susan; Vindas-Quesada, Alberto JoséIn this document, we update the five core inflation indicators that the Central Bank of Costa Rica publishes, using data up to April 2021. We evaluate several statistical properties that core inflation indicators should satisfy. The structural break in inflation, identified after September 2021, resulted in adjustments in four of the indicators.
- Pronósticos univariados de inflación en Costa Rica: evaluación y selección de modelosVindas-Quesada, Alberto; Brenes-Soto, Carlos; Jiménez-Montero, Susan; Jiménez-Morales, Andrea; Sandí-Esquivel, Adriana; Jiménez-Montero, SusanThis document presents the methodology that the Central Bank of Costa Rica uses to evaluate and select the univariate models for short-horizon forecasting purposes. This methodology consists on cuantifying several properties that are deemed desirable for forecasting models, assigning scores and combining them to obtain a final score. The robustness of the model selection to the evaluation period is analyzed, given the recent inflation dynamics. The selection is sensitive to this period, leading to the recommendation of regular selection processes.