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Browsing Documentos académicos by Subject "C11 - Bayesian Analysis: General"
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- El efecto traspaso del tipo de cambio nominal a la inflación en Costa RicaThis study proposes a structural model to estimate the exchange rate pass-through to prices in Costa Rica, extending the traditional focus on unexpected exchange rate shocks by considering the inflation response to general fluctuations in the nominal exchange rate. It also reviews the main previous estimates for the country, highlighting their contributions and methodological limitations. The analysis yields three key findings: (i) existing approaches tend to underestimate the influence of the nominal exchange rate on prices; (ii) recursive identification schemes such as the Cholesky decomposition impose theoretically questionable assumptions; and (iii) the systematic pass-through exhibits a semi-elasticity of 25 %, significantly higher than the 4 % associated with the unconditional pass-through. Moreover, the study shows that pass-through effects conditional on monetary policy have a substantial impact on inflation, underscoring the importance of explicitly incorporating policy responses in the analysis.