Browsing by Subject "E41 - Demanda de dinero"
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- Implicaciones sobre la inflación de no acuñar la moneda de 5 colonesThis document presents the advantages and disadvantages of ceasing minting low-denomination coins, restricting attention to the case of the Costa Rican ₡5 coin. The impact on the price index of ceasing minting the ₡5 coin is estimated through the database compiled by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INEC) for the construction of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and also based on information obtained in the National Household Income and Expenditure Survey (ENIGH 2018-2019). Further, is analyzed the impact of ceasing minting the ₡5 coin on the price of public transport services, such as bus fares. It is concluded that by ceasing to mint a small denomination coin, negative seigniorage is eliminated and the transaction costs of using these coins are reduced. The effects on price levels are small, although they could be heterogeneous by income quintiles. In the particular case of the ₡5 coin, it is found that the coin has lost more than 97% of its initial purchasing power, that the BCCR incurs a negative seigniorage when it mints it, and that there are a series of costs that fall on others economic agents when using the currency in their transactions. On the other hand, ceasing minting the ₡5 coin would have an impact of at most 0.1% on the price level, and would affect 50.18% of bus fares with an average maximum increase of 1,35%. The effect on the price level varies according to the household income level, although not significantly, being greater for households that use relatively more cash in their transactions.
- Modelos de pronóstico de la demanda de numerario para Costa RicaThis paper analyzes methods to forecast the cash demand for the Costa Rican economy, the relative participation of each denomination, and the behavior of cash unfit for further circulation. These elements are relevant inputs for the Central Bank of Costa Rica to fulfill its essential and exclusive function of issuing banknotes and coins according to the real needs of the national economy. To forecast the cash demand, five models are compared: ordinary least squares (OLS), autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), vector error correction model (VECM), artificial neural network model (RNA), and the Holt-Winters method. Regarding the relative participation of each denomination, compositional time series are used, which allows working with series that represent a proportion, and therefore their sum is equal to the unit. For this, an additive log-ratio transformation is applied to the data, to later implement an autoregressive vector model. Finally, the study contemplates the analysis of the time series of unfit cash. It is shown that the same techniques used to forecast the demand for cash can be applied in this case.