Notas Técnicas
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Browsing Notas Técnicas by Author "Brenes-Soto, Carlos"
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- Indicadores de inflación subyacente: una actualizaciónBarrantes-Castillo, Kevin; Brenes-Soto, Carlos; Herra-Leandro, Melissa; Jiménez-Montero, Susan; Vindas-Quesada, Alberto JoséIn this document, we update the five core inflation indicators that the Central Bank of Costa Rica publishes, using data up to April 2021. We evaluate several statistical properties that core inflation indicators should satisfy. The structural break in inflation, identified after September 2021, resulted in adjustments in four of the indicators.
- Pronósticos univariados de inflación en Costa Rica: evaluación y selección de modelosVindas-Quesada, Alberto; Brenes-Soto, Carlos; Jiménez-Montero, Susan; Jiménez-Morales, Andrea; Sandí-Esquivel, Adriana; Jiménez-Montero, SusanThis document presents the methodology that the Central Bank of Costa Rica uses to evaluate and select the univariate models for short-horizon forecasting purposes. This methodology consists on cuantifying several properties that are deemed desirable for forecasting models, assigning scores and combining them to obtain a final score. The robustness of the model selection to the evaluation period is analyzed, given the recent inflation dynamics. The selection is sensitive to this period, leading to the recommendation of regular selection processes.