Browsing by Subject "E2-Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy"
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- Competitividad internacional de Costa Rica: Análisis de los resultados del CANAzofeifa-Villalobos, Ana Georgina; Rojas-Guerrero, Rosilia; Salas-V., Yessenia; Solano-Navarro, Mario GeovannyThis paper analyzes the results of the competitiveness array and its implications for Costa Rican Economy, after applying the Competitive Analysis of Nations (CAN), a software for international trade database. This instrument makes a diagnosis of the competitiveness situation in Costa Rica and it’s a fundamental base, so it can be make a competitiveness indicator for the economy.The results showed that the thirteen selected products represented a 45,3% of the 1998 total exports. Additionally, 17,2% of these products were classify as dynamic and competitive sectors, 48,9% are steady and no competitive sectors and 5.8% are steady and competitive. Finally, the dynamics products that are no competitive represent a 28.1%. Additionally, the adaptability index shows that the economy has decrease its level of specialization and its market share. This result indicates that these products does not have a good adaptation to the market conditions.
- Determinación de modelos para la extracción de señales y el pronóstico de las series trimestrales de la oferta y demanda globalesCampos-Villalobos, Elvia; Kikut-Valverde, Ana Cecilia; Muñoz-Barrantes, Marta Isabel; Porras-Jara, Alexander; Rocha-Bonilla, Lizette María; Rodríguez-Mora, MargaritaThe main objective of this study is to estimate the unobservable components of the Costa Rican time series of global supply, global demand and their components using ARIMA models, in order to assess about the short term behavior of the real sector, additionally it allows the Central Bank to obtain better forecasts of these series.We use the recent available quarterly series of the global supply and demand, in constant colones of 1991, for the period from the first quarter of 1991 to the fourth quarter 2000. We study 35 variables.This is the first time that the software TRAMO/SEATS for Windows is used in the Costa Rican Central Bank. Due to the fact that this procedure is based in models, it allows us to make statistic inference about the estimations obtained from the adjusted models for each component. Additionally, we apply the direct and indirect seasonal adjustment to some variables.From this study we can conclude that the TRAMO/SEATS software constitute an easy, flexible and powerful tool in the time series analysis. In general, this package allowed to discriminate among alternative models and decompositions. Too, we observe a satisfactory final decomposition. But, it is important to make an economic explication for the seasonal adjusted series. Finally, the results of the seasonal adjustment indicates that the indirect method was significant for two variables (agriculture and industry).
- Reformulación de la función de demanda agregada por producto interno para Costa Rica: Aplicación del mecanismo de corrección de erroresThe objective of this paper is to estimate a new specification for the aggregate demand function for domestic product (IS Curve) to improve its forecasting capacity in the Small Scale Macroeconomic Model of the Central Bank of Costa Rica. Since, Costa Rica is a small and open economy, the strategy followed to estimate this function consisted in exploring, in the first place, the effect of external variables over the domestic product, and later evaluate the significance of some domestic variables. We develop an error correction model to take into account the relationship between short and long run. The main results of the estimation indicate that there is an economic and statistically significant effect between the external variables over de aggregate demand. In fact, the empirical evidence suggest a positive and significant effect of the US’s output growth and terms of trade, while there is a negative effect of the real external interest rates over the domestic product. On the other hand, the estimation indicates that there are significant effects of the domestic variables such as the real domestic interest rates and the real exchange rate. Finally, the empirical evidence suggest a negative long run effect of the fiscal deficit over the domestic product behavior, related with the crowding out effect of the public sector financial need’s on the private sector decisions for investment and consumption.