Pronósticos de inflación de corto plazo como insumo para la toma de decisiones de política monetaria

Abstract

The document characterizes the Central Bank of Costa Rica’s approach to short-term inflation forecasting within the context of an inflation-targeting regime, highlighting its importance as a key input for medium term projections that inform the monetary policy decision-making process. This essay describes (i) the rationale for forecasting under inflation targeting, (ii) the transmission mechanism and the relevant horizon, (iii) the set of methodologies employed—univariate models, Bayesian techniques, factor models (FAVAR), and item-level CPI models—and (iv) the integration and validation process that transforms statistical results into a coherent economic forecast, which feeds into the macroeconomic model and policy recommendations, as well as institutional outputs such as the Monthly Economic Developments Report (IMCE) and the Monetary Policy Report (IPM). Finally, it emphasizes the dynamic nature of the forecasting system, including the exploration of machine learning techniques as a complement to traditional econometric approaches.