Browsing by Author "Garita-Garita, Jonathan"
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- Indicadores de holgura en el mercado laboral costarricenseThis article provides a set of labor market slackness indicators for Costa Rica. First, we provide an estimation of the NAIRU rate using a linear state-space model featuring a Phillips curve to capture the underlining relationship between inflation and unemployment. Next, we compute the natural rate of unemployment under the premise that the flow origins of the unemployment rate determine unemployment fluctuations and trends. Lastly, we compute an efficient unemployment rate, an unemployment level that maximizes welfare and that considers the unemployment-vacancy trade-off governed by the Beveridge curve. The three estimators coincide in showing positive employment gaps during the last decade, which translates to excess capacity at the aggregate level. Although the pandemic exacerbated the gaps, the results point that the unemployment rate
- Job Displacement Effects and Labor Market Sorting During COVID-19Este documento estudia los efectos de la pérdida de empleo de los trabajadores. Con datos administrativos detallados de Costa Rica, utilizamos un algoritmo de agrupación para ordenar a los trabajadores en tipos según su estabilidad laboral y eficiencia en la búsqueda de empleo. Nuestros resultados muestran que el desplazamiento laboral conduce a pérdidas de ingresos persistentes para los trabajadores, particularmente durante las recesiones económicas como la pandemia de COVID-19. Los trabajadores desplazados se trasladan a empresas más productivas y con mejor remuneración, especialmente aquellos tipos con un potencial de ingresos inicialmente más alto y con antecedentes de estabilidad laboral. No obstante, los trabajadores también se mueven hacia ocupaciones con salarios más bajos. Los hallazgos sugieren que se deben considerar los cambios en las características del trabajo en lugar de las características del empleador para explicar las pérdidas de ingresos y la reasignación laboral después de la pandemia.
- Misallocation and Productivity in Costa RicaThis paper documents the effect of resource misallocation on Costa Rica's aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) using the Hsieh and Klenow (2009) methodology. The model suggests theoretical TFP gains of around 50%-60% for the overall economy and 10%- 15% for the manufacturing sector when the United States' level of efficiency is used as a benchmark. Evidence of a deterioration in the efficiency of resource allocation over the period 2005-2015 was not found, and misallocation seems to be greater in the agricultural sector. Small and large firms face advantageous output distortions relative to medium-sized firms, and small firms tend to also face disadvantageous capital distortions. Furthermore, our results also suggest that small firms have experienced higher growth in both capital and output wedges. Finally, distortions create incentives for firms to exit the market and thwarts the entrance of new participants in an industry.
- Sovereign risk: global and local factorsDeterminants of sovereign spread in Costa Rica are analyzed through different macroeconomic variables derived from theory. A quarterly panel data set, from 2002 to 2014, is used to estimate an Arellano-Bond specification model. A VAR model is also estimated to identify transmission effects from shocks of Latin America's and Central America's risk perception on Costa Rica's sovereign spread. Macroeconomic fundamentals such as fiscal and external imbalances, local inflation and domestic interest rates help explain the EMBI spread of Costa Rica and other countries in the sample. External factors related with international stock market volatility and global risk perceptions also have a role determining this spread. Furthermore, our findings show a contemporaneous and positive effect from a perturbation in Latin America's spread over Costa Rica's EMBI spread.