### Browsing by Author "León-Murillo, Jorge"

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- A Disaggregated Model and Second Round Effects for CPI Inflation in Costa RicaThis paper estimates a medium-term forecasting model for the headline inflation of Costa Rica, utilizing disaggregate data from the components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The period used for the estimation is characterize by a process of reduction of inflation and stabilized around the Central Bank's inflation target. The result show that the use of disaggregate data is at least as good as the aggregate data in forecast accuracy. The disaggregate model allows to differentiate the inertia and the Second-Round effects present on the inflation.
- Análisis de variación de reservas internacionales para Costa RicaThe purpose of the present document is to analyze the main factors that determine Central Bank foreign reserve accumulation in Costa Rica and to estimate an econometric specification to forecast the foreign reserve stock in a two-year span. The foreign reserves stock represents an important variable for the Central Bank of Costa Rica because it allows it to defend the present exchange rate regime of crawling-peg. Our results indicate that the interest rate premium, the real interest rate and the real exchange rate are important factors in the determination of the accumulations of foreign reserves. In addition, official capital flows have a positive effect on foreign reserve accumulation, while excess real money supply has a negative effect. The effect of an increase in interest rate premium on foreign reserves is smaller when it is produce by an increase on domestic interest rates, than when it reflects a decrease on the international interest rate. We set forth several hypotheses to explain this result. In within sample forecasts the model performs well, with a good fit and a 70% accuracy in the direction of the variations in foreign reserves.
- Capital Inflows in a Small Open Economy: Costa RicaThis document illustrates the inflows of capital to a small and open economy such as Costa Rica using the Metzler Diagram. The simplicity of the Metzler Diagram provides clarity to understand the motivation for the inflows of capital, as well as a framework to analyze the policy options available to the policy-makers.
- Costos de transacciones en Costa RicaIn this study we carry out the first formal estimation of the social cost of transactions in Costa Rica. The estimation considers transactions in cash and cards, covers the 2008-2011 years and is based on the methodology applied by Bergman, Guibourg and Segendorf (2007) for Sweden, with adaptations specific for Costa Rica. We estimate that the social cost of transactions has remained relatively stable as a share of GDP during the years included. We assess that the importance of costs stemming from cash use is high: depending of the assumptions used, our estimations suggest that they are at least as important as those stemming from card transactions. We found that the decisions made by the consumers generate a sizable part of the social costs of using cash. Social costs per transaction are comparable to those calculated in the relevant literature, and they indicate that cash is generally less costly than cards. If the composition of private and social costs is analyzed, it can be seen that the components of the cost on which the BCCR could have more influence are associated with the withdrawal, holding and use of cash in transactions, all of which affect the private costs of consumers, banks and retailers. An institutional strategy to provide alternative electronic payment systems and to promote its use among consumers and retailers would result in a lower need to withdraw cash, in lower cash stocks to manage by banks and other companies, and in a lower opportunity cost for the cash held.
- Determinantes de la cuenta corriente en Costa RicaThis paper develops variants of the model suggested by Glick and Rogoff (1996) and VAR models to analyze short term effects of the main determinants for the current account in Costa Rica. Empirical evidence suggests that, lagged investment, government’s primary surplus, terms of trade, international interest rates, and the real exchange rate, have significant impact on the evolution of the current account. Changes in the terms of trade have a moderate effect on the current account. Terms of trade affect the current account by two channels, the quantum and the value of the exports and imports. The estimated net effect suggests that a decline on the terms of trade produces a worsening in the current account deficit. Government income and expenses have influence on the current account in such a way that increases in the government’s surplus net of interest payments will reduce the current account deficit. In addition, international interest rates and real exchange rate variations have a significantly positive effect on the current account. Finally, no significant effect of US growth on current account deficit can be identified.
- Efectos macroeconómicos de una depreciaciónAfter abanding the crawling peg regime in october 2006, the Costa Rican economy has experienced two abrupt depreciation episodes, in 2008 and 2014. The analysis of these two episodes shows that the observed depreciation is related to the increase of inflation, interest rates, and the lower economic growth. Within the labor market the depreciation episodes are related to lower employment and lower real wage. In this document we complement this descriptive analysis with the results of a counterfactual exercise based on Laverde (2015) in which we show the macroeconomic implications of having kept the crawling peg during the years after 2006. We also show the impact of a sudden devaluation of 5% induced by the Central Bank
- Efectos macroeconómicos del fenómeno El Niño en Costa RicaThe present paper explores the effects of the climatic phenomenon known as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in some of the macroeconomic variables of Costa Rica, including the evolution of prices and production. For this, a relevant theoretical framework is developed and the effects of ENSO fluctuations on these variables are estimated. Results suggest a positive effect on prices and a negative effect on production.
- Un enfoque monetario de los efectos sobre precios y tasas de interés del tipo de cambio fijoThe purpose of this document is to discuss, from the monetary point of view, the long run effects of a fixed exchange rate regime on prices and interest rates.We develop a partial equilibrium model for the monetary sector of a small open economy in which we link fixed exchange rate to the process of money creation and inflation.Using this model, we compare two monetary policy scenarios. The first one assumes that the central bank is active and by open market operations tries to keep inflation under control; the other assumes that the central bank is passive and does not sterilize the foreign capital inflows. Those two scenarios allow us to reach at some analytical results about the long-term effects of the pegged exchange rate regime on the inflation rate.Next, we “parameterize” the model using the Costa Rican data and perform a simulation exercise. As a result, we get some numerical magnitudes of the costs of keeping the exchange rate fixed long time, expressed in terms of inflation and interest rates prevailing in the economy.Based on the simulation exercise, the model asserts that after 10 years of keeping the exchange rate pegged, the capacity of the monetary policy to achieve inflation rates below five percent has been eroded. Therefore, for the monetary policy to regain its active role, that is to be able to curb inflation, it is necessary that the exchange rate regime does not generate monetary disequilibria.
- Factores que determinan la cuenta financiera de Costa RicaThe purpose of this paper is to develop an econometric model with the main factors that determine the financial account of Costa Rica in order to better understand the behavior of capital flows and quantify the effect these factors have on this account. The results of most of the variables have the expected signs and a high level of statistical significance on the dependent variables: the financial account and classified as liabilities and assets. The difference between local and international interest rates indicated a high level of significance in both models; therefore, it is a relevant variable to explain the behavior of capital flows and a key indicator to take into account when forecasting futures flows of capital.
- Inflación internacional relevante para Costa RicaThis document analyzes different measures of international inflation and their influence on the domestic inflation. We found that these measurements have a statistical significant effect on the behavior of domestic inflation. Therefore the evolution of the international inflation must be considered when assessing the inflation target stated by monetary authority. The international inflation calculated using the weight of exports to different markets is the most relevant international inflation both in levels and in differences for the case of Costa Rica. Another element that the Central Bank should take into account when setting its inflation target is the fact that for the period 2001-2010 the different relevant measures of international inflation for Costa Rica lie in the range of 3% and 4%.
- Modelo Macroeconómico de Pequeña Escala para Costa RicaA small scale macroeconomic model (SSMM) was devised and estimated as part of the modernizing process of the Monetary Program of the Central Bank of Costa Rica. The SSMM is intended to enhance the knowledge of the transmission channels of the monetary policy actions designed to achieve external an internal stability of the domestic currency. The SSMM is intended also for short and medium run forecasting under different scenarios. This document describes a theoretical model with four behavioral equations to estimate: the inflation (Phillips Curve augmented with expectations), the real gross domestic product growth rate (Aggregate Demand function), the change in net foreign reserves, and nominal interest rate (Central Bank’s reaction function). Cointegration analysis and error corrections models are applied to obtain the parameters of some of the equations. The frequency of the data is quarterly from 1991:01 to 2004:01. This document also include a forecast evaluation, simulations of shocks to policy variables (interest rate, exchange rate), and some exogenous variables such as international interest rate, United States growth rate and terms of trade.
- Pass through del tipo de cambio en los precios de bienes transables y no transables en Costa RicaThis paper estimates short run and long run coefficients of exchange rate pass through in to the prices of tradable and non tradable goods in Costa Rica. The coefficients are estimated by OLS. A VAR analysis is conducted in order to estimate the dynamic process between exchange rate and inflation. Granger causality test and a stability test are conducted too. The short run pass through coefficients are 13% and 10%, for tradable and non tradable goods respectively and the long run coefficients are 68% and 52% in the same order. There is a second stage pass through of 7% included in the long run coefficient for non tradable goods. The dynamic analysis shows that the adjustment process of prices as a result of an exchange rate shock takes 17 months for tradable goods and 27 months for non tradable goods. The Granger causality test shows precedence between variation in the exchange rate and inflation, and between the prices of tradable and non tradable goods. There is statistical evidence of a structural change in the non tradable model between the end of 1995 and the beginning of 1996.
- El pass through del tipo de cambio. Un análisis para la economía costarricense de 1991 al 2001.This paper estimates a coefficient of pass through for Costa Rica and tries to determine the importance of some factors that had been pointed out by several empiric studies as probable determinants (GDP gap, real exchange rate deviation from equilibrium, economy openness, and inflationary lag). The coefficient is estimated by OLS. In order to estimate the dynamic between exchange rate and inflation rate a VAR analysis is conducted. In the short run the pass through coefficient is 16% with two months of lag. Additionally, is confirmed the importance of inflationary inertia. However in a long run analysis a pass through coefficient of 55% was found. The dynamic analysis shows that this process takes around 10 months, with an important increase in the fifth month. Finally, the study of the determinants of this coefficient shows that the most important effect is the misalignment of the real exchange rate. Additionally, the GDP gap and the economy openness have a significant impact on it.
- Persistencia inflacionaria en Costa Rica: Precios de Servicios y ReguladosIn this document we studied the degree of inflation persistence and price stickiness across different products categories in the Costa Rican Consumer Price index (CPI), using disaggregate and aggregate data, with a particular focus in the regulated and services prices. We adopt two approaches to reach the measure of inflation persistence, a parametric and a structural approach. The parametric approach is based in an autoregressive process with constant mean, and the structural approach is based on the estimation of the New Keynesian Hybrid Phillips Curve. To estimate the measure of inflation persistence we use different econometric techniques, as univariate and multivariate time series, and panel data methods. The evidence suggests that changes in prices and services regulated items have higher degrees of persistence in addition to presenting rigidities in the adjustment pattern. We also identified that the rate of change of the price index of regulated articles is more volatile than the rate of change of the CPI, and the rate of change of the services price index is more volatile from structural break in April 2009, identified by Torres (2012). Also it was found that using disaggregate data the degree of inflation persistence is lower than the inflation persistence estimation of univariate models with aggregate data, and this tend to reduce excluding the regulated and services products prices.
- Probabilidad de corrección súbita de Cuenta Corriente para Costa Rica: un enfoque de análisis de supervivencia.This paper estimates the probability of a sudden current account correction for Costa Rica, through a survival model approach using data panel. We find that the estimated probability of a current account reversal decreases when: i) the five years ahead real-growth increases, ii) the external situation of similar countries improves, iii) the dependency ratio increments, iv) the world's GDP percentage for which the country have signed a trade agreement increases, v) reserves accumulation accelerates and vi) the institutional framework becomes more democratic. On the other hand, an increase in the total factor productivity (TFP) growth 5-year ahead raises likelihood of a reversal. The effect of capital controls on the probability showed an ambiguous behavior.
- ¿Qué incentiva la entrada de capitales a CR? Prima por riesgo y diferencial de tasas de interésThe goal of this paper is to analyze the interest rate differential as the possible main factor behind the capital inflows experienced by Costa Rica during the second semester of 2012. For this purpose, a panel data model for interest rate differential is estimated taking into consideration an array of relevant macroeconomic variables. The results suggest that interest rate differentials for Costa Rica in 2012 are above what the estimated model predicts for the lending rate and deposit rate by 8,4 p.p., and between 2,7 p.p. and 1,7 p.p., respectively. This excess in the interest rate differential could explain the observed capital inflows. Therefore, a reduction of lending and deposit interest rate differentials is crucial, but an extra e ort has to be made to reduce the lending rate differential. As a consequence of the prevailing situation during the second semester of 2012, the difference between lending and deposit rate in Costa Rica is greater than in countries with similar levels of risk.
- Riesgo moral asociado al uso de endeudamiento externo de corto plazo por parte del sector financieroThis paper addresses the issue of moral hazard associated with the use of short-term foreign borrowing by the financial intermediaries in Costa Rica. This situation arises from the implicit insurance that the authorities confer; given the expectation that banks have about central bank incentives to intervene to prevent the fail of any systemically important financial institution (SIFI). Using a simple mathematical-economic model, this paper analyzes several factors involved in this phenomenon and suggests policy measures that could provide a solution to the problem.