Browsing by Author "Quirós-Solano, Juan Carlos"
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- Control de calidad de los datos en series económicas de tiempoThis technical note studies the command TERROR included in the integrated software TRAMO SEATS, with the aim to illustrate the potential for this application within the context of streamlining and systematization in data audit, therefore improving the quality of the information used in the Economic Divisionand the Central bank to carry out the different calculations and research that this unit develops.Costa Rican official data has been used series in order to assimilate the usefulness of the tool, nevertheless, is recommended to apply this procedure topreliminary data from which “The final statistics” are generated, this would allow for a verification of the data considered suspicious before being used for the elaboration of final products.On the other hand, this study constitutes a contribution from the Economic Research Department to the Economic Division´s Automatization of information systems and process project.
- Efectos asimétricos de la política monetariaThe objective of this paper is to obtain empirical evidence about the existence of asymmetric effects of monetary policy over economic activity, based on interest rate behavior. Monetary policy shows an asymmetric effect when an interest rate over their fundamental level have an impact on economic activity that is significantly different from that when interest rate are below its fundamental level. Changes in interest rate that reflect changes of policy are identified using two stage least squares. In the first stage, the fundamental level of the interest rate is estimated with a modified Taylor rule and residuals are used to identify the state of the policy. The second stage consists of a regression of the real output on a constant and lagged values of the positive and negative residuals obtained in the first stage. The asymmetry would come determined by the statistical significance of individual coefficients of positive and negative residuals and the difference between them. The empirical evidence, over the 1994:01-2002:11 period, suggests the existence of weak asymmetry of monetary policy. Although increases and reductions in interest rate affect the production level significantly, the difference of the impact is not significant.
- Indicadores de seguimiento del tipo de cambio nominal costarricenseIn this paper we construct a series of daily monitoring indicators of the trend and volatility of the Costa Rican nominal exchange rate, both for 2008 and 2009, and for the first quarter of 2010. These instruments are based on theoretical developments in Technical Analysis of asset markets. The aim is that these indicators complement the signals provided by other technical tools and the study of real and financial fundamentals of the domestic exchange market, even including geopolitical factors that may also influence the expectations of economic agents. 1 Departamento de Análisis y Asesoría Económica. Email: quirossj@bccr.fi.cr 2 Departamento de Investigación Económica. Email: torresgc@bccr.fi.cr Our review of the empirical evidence supports the advisability of using the Moving Average Combination indicator and the Moving Averages Convergence-Divergence Moving Average (MACD) additional tools for monitoring the trend of the Costa Rican nominal exchange rate. However, when both indicators are applied to the closing exchange rate on the wholesale market (MONEX), instead of the effective exchange rate of the retailer market, the signals seem to be clearer. We also recommend to include the Average True Range (ATR) and the Relative Volatility Index (RVI) to monitor the exchange rate variability in Costa Rica. In the case of the RVI, their signals should be taken with caution for now (while greater exchange rate flexibility is achieved and the deepening the foreign exchange market further advances), but these signals may be helpful to give an idea of the likely direction of the risk concentration of changes in the exchange rate in the short term. Both indicators confirmed the expected inverse relationship between the degree of Central Bank intervention on the exchange rate band and the level of exchange rate volatility during much of 2008 and the first half of 2009. Finally, although the Costa Rican foreign exchange market conditions prevailing at the beginning of our research (market in trend) limited the group of selected indicators to implement, the greatest fluctuation exhibited by current exchange rate now allows the application of a broader range of daily Technical Analysis indicators of financial markets.