Browsing by Author "Mayorga-Martínez, Mauricio"
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- Análisis de sensibilidad de la banca comercial ante cambios en el entorno macroeconómicoThis document analyses the sensibility of response toward two of the major risks (liquidity and credit) that banking institutions confront when there are changes in the macroeconomic environment. Also, the work develops a clustering of bank entities taking as classification criteria its capability of response.One of the main results is that the average elasticity of reaction level is relatively low. However, there are significant extreme values that can be considered as the most vulnerable banks in the presence of changes of some macroeconomic variables. This banks should have a more strict following, in function of the future results that can be obtained with the use of other techniques due to the possibility of contagion effects when a considerable shock comes and deteriorates the financial development. Also we found that monetary variables produce less effects over liquidity and credit risks than real variables as Economic Activity Monthly Index (IMAE) and prices.In general terms, the banks are clustered from moderate to low reactions. This result can be either, convenient or inconvenient, depending on the Central Bank's point of view. If the criteria is to determine how volatile the behavior of banks can be against changes in the macroeconomic environment, this result is favorable in order to obtain financial system stability. However, if the criteria has to do with the capacity of Central bank policy instruments to affect banks financial developing, the results are not quiet promising.
- Efectos asimétricos de la política monetariaThe objective of this paper is to obtain empirical evidence about the existence of asymmetric effects of monetary policy over economic activity, based on interest rate behavior. Monetary policy shows an asymmetric effect when an interest rate over their fundamental level have an impact on economic activity that is significantly different from that when interest rate are below its fundamental level. Changes in interest rate that reflect changes of policy are identified using two stage least squares. In the first stage, the fundamental level of the interest rate is estimated with a modified Taylor rule and residuals are used to identify the state of the policy. The second stage consists of a regression of the real output on a constant and lagged values of the positive and negative residuals obtained in the first stage. The asymmetry would come determined by the statistical significance of individual coefficients of positive and negative residuals and the difference between them. The empirical evidence, over the 1994:01-2002:11 period, suggests the existence of weak asymmetry of monetary policy. Although increases and reductions in interest rate affect the production level significantly, the difference of the impact is not significant.
- Organización y comportamiento estratégico en la industria bancaria costarricenseThis investigation contains a diagnosis of the Costa Rican Banking System. The main instrument of analysis is an opinion pull applied to 25 banks of the system, related with strategy and competition.We concluded, the Costa Rican Banking System has two identified markets: corporative and personal. This classification is based on each bank manifestation as their main business orientation. Nevertheless the great majority of the banks, without consider their comparative size with the system, participate in both markets.There is a strong concentration around five entities, that is noted observing the outputs of the index of Herfindahl-Hirschman in function of the total asset, public deposits and credit, since it maintains relatively high levels in spite of their descending tendency in the last decade.An important point is the Costa Rican Banking Industry consider that there are possibilities of growth in the existence of market niches still not explored. Another interesting point is that the greater threat is based on the possibility of foreign competitors access, that they will face with a technological limitation, their principal disadvantage in order to compete in the market. Nevertheless, they rely on a competitive advantage very identified, which is the human resource.The rivalry inside the system has been increasing along the ninetieths and now it is perceived as very intense, especially for the banks in the corporative segment. However, the market is not highly competitive yet, in part for the legislation that becomes a barrier to the direct access for the International bank.In order to confront this greater competition, most of banks, independently of their segment orientation, follows a product differentiation strategy, being the personalized attention the main characteristic they use in order to differentiate their product.Inside the Costa Rican Banking System it is possible to identify seven submarkets, each of them conformed by banks with similar characteristics. These submarkets defines competition focuses that are strongly related.Finally five banks are considered leaders or benchmarking to the competition, actually, is very possible they determine most of the main prices of the System. These banks belong to the corporative segment and are: Interfín, Costa Rica, National, Banex and San José.
- Propuesta de indicadores macroeconómicos y financieros de alerta temprana para la detección de crisis bancariasThe main objective of this paper is to present a report of the results about the project for the design early warning system indicators for detecting of banking crises. This paper presents a proposal of indicators and some methodologies to monitor the macroeconomics and financial areas. In the first case, the recommendation is to monitor a whole of macroeconomics' indicators and a vulnerability’s index. In the second case, the proposal is to analyze a system of 19 financial ratios of the commercial banking classified by similar groups. Furthermore, it includes a study about horizontal and vertical of the financial statements according of the groups. The external sector gave the major concentration of signals for the last quarter of the 1998 and it is the sector brings the higher vulnerability of the financial system. These signals are corresponding with the crises of the international economics since the end of 1997. Concerning the vulnerability macroeconomic index, in the period studied (1997-1998), do not look like whole alert signals in the behavior of the indicators, except at January of 1997, when the credit to private sector shows alert signal. However, the behavior of this whole index was stable.