Browsing by Subject "C43-Index Numbers and Aggregation"
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- Diseño de un índice de volumen de producción internacional relevante para Costa RicaIn this paper an indicator of international production volume relevant for Costa Rican economy is elaborated. In this way the Research Department of Central Bank of Costa Rica could have a new proxy variable, for trend and variability of the international GDP, that contributes to explain the behavior of local exports and GDP. They are created three indicators based in the commercial relations that Costa Rica have. The first considers to weight by exports, a second one by imports and lastly by total international trade. After having realized different statistic tests, it is found that the indicator that better explains the Costa Rican economic performance is the indicator when the total international trade is used to weight.
- Indicadores de inflación subyacente para Costa Rica basados en exclusión y en reponderaciónWe evaluate the performance of new core inflation indicators for Costa Rica, computed through the exclusion or reweighting of the items in the CPI basket. We construct exclusion indicators based on the elimination of fixed categories of the CPI, as well as alternative versions of an indicator calculated by excluding articles according to their volatility, using data updated to December 2012. We also construct two types of reweighted indicators: one type using volatility measures and the other using persistence measures. Persistence reweighting is based either on the estimated spectrum of the series of price changes, three indicators based in an autoregressive coefficients methodology, a mean-reversion indictor, or an indicator based on the correlation of each series of price changes with variations in future inflation. For each indicator, we evaluate unbiasedness, fit to trend inflation, predictive ability and long-run behaviour. From the results of this evaluation, we recommend monitoring one of the volatility-weighted indicators and one of the persistence-weighted indicators.
- Inflación internacional relevante para Costa RicaThis document analyzes different measures of international inflation and their influence on the domestic inflation. We found that these measurements have a statistical significant effect on the behavior of domestic inflation. Therefore the evolution of the international inflation must be considered when assessing the inflation target stated by monetary authority. The international inflation calculated using the weight of exports to different markets is the most relevant international inflation both in levels and in differences for the case of Costa Rica. Another element that the Central Bank should take into account when setting its inflation target is the fact that for the period 2001-2010 the different relevant measures of international inflation for Costa Rica lie in the range of 3% and 4%.
- Probabilidad de corrección súbita de Cuenta Corriente para Costa Rica: un enfoque de análisis de supervivencia.This paper estimates the probability of a sudden current account correction for Costa Rica, through a survival model approach using data panel. We find that the estimated probability of a current account reversal decreases when: i) the five years ahead real-growth increases, ii) the external situation of similar countries improves, iii) the dependency ratio increments, iv) the world's GDP percentage for which the country have signed a trade agreement increases, v) reserves accumulation accelerates and vi) the institutional framework becomes more democratic. On the other hand, an increase in the total factor productivity (TFP) growth 5-year ahead raises likelihood of a reversal. The effect of capital controls on the probability showed an ambiguous behavior.
- Pronósticos de inflación mediante técnicas bayesianasThe effectiveness of monetary policy under inflation targeting scheme proposed by the Central Bank of Costa Rica is based in the correct and timely forecast of inflation in order to design the best monetary policy actions. The purpose of this study is to develop a complementary tool to forecast inflation using a Bayesian approach. To that end, we estimate the methodologies of Bayesian Model Averaging and Weighted Average Least Squares. This forecast allows expanding and complementing the analysis actually estimated with the Macroeconomic Quarterly Projection Model (MQPM) of the Central Bank of Costa Rica. From the results of this evaluation, we show that for monthly data and forecast horizons from 1 to 12 months, you may find forecast by a Bayesian process that have greater predictive performance than the autoregressive model.