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- A Disaggregated Model and Second Round Effects for CPI Inflation in Costa RicaThis paper estimates a medium-term forecasting model for the headline inflation of Costa Rica, utilizing disaggregate data from the components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The period used for the estimation is characterize by a process of reduction of inflation and stabilized around the Central Bank's inflation target. The result show that the use of disaggregate data is at least as good as the aggregate data in forecast accuracy. The disaggregate model allows to differentiate the inertia and the Second-Round effects present on the inflation.
- An Endogenous Regime Switching Model for the Exchange Rate Pass-Through Effect in Costa RicaEntendiendo el efecto de traspaso (ET) es crucial para la conducción de políticas de una economía pequeña y abierta como la de Costa Rica. En este documento, proponemos un modelo de vectores autorregresivos con cambio de régimen endógeno (RS-VAR) para estudiar el efecto de transmisión del tipo de cambio en Costa Rica. Identificamos dos regímenes: ET alto y ET bajo. Este modelo permite que las probabilidades de transición sean influenciadas por variables endógenas como la inflación, los precios del petróleo y el tipo de cambio. Encontramos que: i) el ET es de 4.5% en el régimen bajo y de 60% en el régimen alto, ii) un bajo ET resulta de períodos de alta volatilidad del tipo de cambio y, iii) un choque de inflación aumenta la probabilidad de una baja transmisión. Dada la evidencia, recomendamos considerar el ET oscila entre períodos de alta y baja magnitud en lugar de tener un valor único.
- Un análisis de la paridad del poder de compra en países de la OCDEAn examination of the country’s PPP-adjusted aggregate price level compared to other regions of the world does not create a red flag with respect to Costa Rica being particularly expensive. This is true even when comparing Costa Rica with the OECD. The picture is very different when disaggregating price levels and conducting a study by product category. The analysis by categories shows that some product groups are extremely expensive in Costa Rica, not only in comparison with Latin America, but up to 30% more expensive than in OECD countries that have an average GDP per capita 56% higher to the Costa Rican. An analysis of the most expensive categories in the country, and the products that compose them, indicates that high costs might be linked to market concentration, little competition and the regulatory framework that surrounds the industries in these groups. Despite the country being relatively cheap in multiple categories, high prices in key industries with high concentration of producers may have contributed to the general notion of Costa Rica as an expensive country. In particular, many of the goods in expensive categories are part of the basic food basket. This impacts the most vulnerable population the most, as it allocates a greater percentage of its income to spending on food. Thus, increasing the degree of competition could disproportionately benefit low-income people, and help reduce real income inequality in the country.
- Análisis de productividad en Costa Rica: un enfoque microeconómicoThis paper analyzes the evolution of productivity of the formal sector in Costa Rica using microdata for the period 2005-2021. Manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and agricultural sectors are examined with special emphasis. Our results suggest that total factor productivity (TFP) has exhibited an upward trend since 2015. According to our estimations, firms in manufacturing and those under the Free Trade Zone regime have boosted productivity growth in recent years. However, productivity growth does not seem to be explained by a single economic sector. Similar to our findings in manufacturing, trade and agriculture show a dynamic where firms that experienced increases in their productivity are also the ones increasing their market share, a signal of efficiency. Finally, the estimated productivity exhibits desirable characteristics: it is positively correlated with firms´ export status, the degree of technological sophistication, and the level of socio-economic development and competitiveness of Costa Rica's municipalities.
- Análisis de sensibilidad de la banca comercial ante cambios en el entorno macroeconómicoThis document analyses the sensibility of response toward two of the major risks (liquidity and credit) that banking institutions confront when there are changes in the macroeconomic environment. Also, the work develops a clustering of bank entities taking as classification criteria its capability of response.One of the main results is that the average elasticity of reaction level is relatively low. However, there are significant extreme values that can be considered as the most vulnerable banks in the presence of changes of some macroeconomic variables. This banks should have a more strict following, in function of the future results that can be obtained with the use of other techniques due to the possibility of contagion effects when a considerable shock comes and deteriorates the financial development. Also we found that monetary variables produce less effects over liquidity and credit risks than real variables as Economic Activity Monthly Index (IMAE) and prices.In general terms, the banks are clustered from moderate to low reactions. This result can be either, convenient or inconvenient, depending on the Central Bank's point of view. If the criteria is to determine how volatile the behavior of banks can be against changes in the macroeconomic environment, this result is favorable in order to obtain financial system stability. However, if the criteria has to do with the capacity of Central bank policy instruments to affect banks financial developing, the results are not quiet promising.
- Análisis de variación de reservas internacionales para Costa RicaThe purpose of the present document is to analyze the main factors that determine Central Bank foreign reserve accumulation in Costa Rica and to estimate an econometric specification to forecast the foreign reserve stock in a two-year span. The foreign reserves stock represents an important variable for the Central Bank of Costa Rica because it allows it to defend the present exchange rate regime of crawling-peg. Our results indicate that the interest rate premium, the real interest rate and the real exchange rate are important factors in the determination of the accumulations of foreign reserves. In addition, official capital flows have a positive effect on foreign reserve accumulation, while excess real money supply has a negative effect. The effect of an increase in interest rate premium on foreign reserves is smaller when it is produce by an increase on domestic interest rates, than when it reflects a decrease on the international interest rate. We set forth several hypotheses to explain this result. In within sample forecasts the model performs well, with a good fit and a 70% accuracy in the direction of the variations in foreign reserves.
- Análisis del encadenamiento productivo de las empresas multinacionales atraídas por CINDE a Costa RicaThis paper describes backward productive linkages and its determinants for the foreign firms attracted by CINDE and others of the especial regime in Costa Rica. The linkages are defined as local transactions divided by total employees of each firm. With the “Registro de Variables Económicas” of the Central Bank of Costa Rica it is possible to observe transactions at the micro-level, and thus characterize linkages between 2008 and 2017. With diverse specifications of non-balanced panel data we found evidence in favor of greater linkages of the foreign, attracted by CINDE, and other firms in the especial regime relative to local firms. This supports the literature that says firms in developing countries have lower relative performance. Moreover, transactions on non-tradable goods and services are mainly done through local firms on the common regime. In contrast, foreign firms in the especial regimen are the ones that supplies tradable goods and services to multinational firms. Particularly, services suppliers have increased in quantity and also have higher growths of their transaction amounts with all groups of multinationals attracted to the country. There is still a lot of margin to improve for the local firms to be the major suppliers in the key inputs needed by multinationals. Additionally, some costs of non-tradables could diminish competitiveness. The main example is the generation, transmission, and distribution of electric energy. We argue it is in the investments promotion where public policy could promote economic growth and higher linkages of Costa Rica and the global value chains.
- Análisis histórico del tipo de cambio real en Costa RicaThe Real Exchange Rate (RER) is a relative price that determines the allocation of resources in an economy, therefore it has an impact on economic activity and, in addition, reflects the conditions that affect competitiveness in international trade. Its analysis and interpretation must be carried out in a complementary way with internal and external macroeconomic variables. In this paper, the RER in Costa Rica is analyzed from a historical perspective for the period 1957-2020, together with the trajectory of its long-term macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate regime in force at each moment. There is also included an estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) using the approach called Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER). It is documented that the macroeconomic fundamentals of the ERER have varied substantially in ways that affected the RER in different directions, and that the latter has mostly remained on a path consistent with the equilibrium dictated by its macroeconomic fundamentals.
- Asimetrías en el traspaso del tipo de cambio durante el periodo de flexibilidad cambiaria en Costa RicaThe paper analyses the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in Costa Rica during the current exchange rate flexibility period and tests whether there is evidence of asymmetry. For this end, we estimate structural distributed lag models that encompasses symmetric and asymmetric data generating process in line with Kilian y Vigfusson (2011). We found evidence of sign asymmetry in the bivariate relationship between inflation and exchange rate and when controlling for interest rate differential and output gap.
- Assessing public debt sustainability for Costa Rica using the fiscal reaction functionEsta investigación hace un análisis empírico sobre la sostenibilidad de la deuda soberana costarricense con base en tres enfoques complementarios: el cálculo del balance primario estabilizador del balance fiscal, que se obtiene de la restricción presupuestaria inter temporal del gobierno; la estimación de los parámetros de la función de reacción fiscal (FRF), con base en la metodología propuesta por Bohn (2007) y la estimación de gráficos de abanico para el balance fiscal primario y la deuda pública, como porcentajes del PIB, con base en la propuesta de Celasun et al. (2006). Con datos anuales desde 1974 hasta 2018, se muestra que el comportamiento de la deuda ha sido insostenible en diferentes momentos bajo el indicador de largo plazo, lo que se refleja también en la conducta de corto plazo. Para las observaciones más recientes, la conclusión es que la deuda tiene una trayectoria insostenible. Sin embargo, dado que a finales del 2018 se aprobó una reforma fiscal con cambios en ingresos y gastos, se agregó el análisis bajo incertidumbre de la trayectoria esperada de la deuda hasta el 2023 y 2030 con base en las proyecciones de dicho cambio regulatorio. El resultado muestra que el nivel más alto de la razón de deuda al PIB sería 68% en el 2026, momento a partir del cual se revierte la tendencia (al alza).
- Combinación de estimaciones del producto potencial con un método bayesianoIn this paper, we calculated the potential output for the Costa Rican economy. First, we applied several different methods to calculate this non-observable variable, such as the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, Hodrick-Prescott filter, production function, Kalman filter, and SVAR. Then, we combined the results of these methods using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and a Phillips curve. Finally, we obtained optimal weights for each estimated potential product and estimated an indicator of the potential output series.
- Combinación de proyecciones de inflación: nuevas metodologíasIn 2001 the Central Bank of Costa Rica developed a combination of inflation forecasts which constitutes the basis for the forecasts discussed in the Inflation Report, and which is the main tool for monthly passive forecasting. The individual forecast models were revised in 2008. Using these revisions as a starting point, this document focuses in assessing the performance of alternative methodologies for combination, including those which allow for the possibility of structural change. For the period June 1996 – October 2008, dynamic forecasts were calculated using the six forecast models developed by the Central Bank of Costa Rica. These forecasts were combined through weighted least squares, state-space and smooth transition methods. In general, these techniques resulted in a reduction of the forecast error in comparison with the original models and the current optimal combination. Applying weighted least squares to the Hallman and Kamstra framework for a horizon of 3 months allowed for a reduction in the forecast error while maintaining all weights positive. For horizons of 6, 12 and 24 months it was not possible to obtain a combination that reduced forecast errors and that included only positive weights.
- ¿Cómo cambian los precios en Costa Rica? Un análisis con microdatosThis paper analyzes the behavior of individual consumer prices in Costa Rica using more than 887 000 observations of price changes at the product and establishment levels, gathered by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC) for the period August 2006 to December 2013 in order to compute the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The analysis focuses on four dimensions that are not always found together in studies of this nature: frequency, duration, magnitude and synchronization of changes. The characterization of price changes is done for two periods: one of low inflation that began in 2009 and a previous period in which Costa Rica experienced double-digit inflation rates. The analysis shows that the period of low inflation is associated with less frequent price changes, longer duration and lower magnitude in price variation. The evidence for all price changes is more consistent with a state-dependent scheme of price adjustment, although for groups like services and regulated items more empirical support is found for a time-dependent adjustment scheme.
- Competitividad internacional de Costa Rica: Análisis de los resultados del CANAzofeifa-Villalobos, Ana Georgina; Rojas-Guerrero, Rosilia; Salas-V., Yessenia; Solano-Navarro, Mario GeovannyThis paper analyzes the results of the competitiveness array and its implications for Costa Rican Economy, after applying the Competitive Analysis of Nations (CAN), a software for international trade database. This instrument makes a diagnosis of the competitiveness situation in Costa Rica and it’s a fundamental base, so it can be make a competitiveness indicator for the economy.The results showed that the thirteen selected products represented a 45,3% of the 1998 total exports. Additionally, 17,2% of these products were classify as dynamic and competitive sectors, 48,9% are steady and no competitive sectors and 5.8% are steady and competitive. Finally, the dynamics products that are no competitive represent a 28.1%. Additionally, the adaptability index shows that the economy has decrease its level of specialization and its market share. This result indicates that these products does not have a good adaptation to the market conditions.
- Construcción de gráficos de abanico con bandas asimétricas: una aplicación para el pronóstico de inflación en Costa RicaThe calculation of error bands of equal size around a forecast bypasses possible asymmetries in the downward or upward pressures that the forecast may face. The goal of fan charts with asymmetric error bands is to provide the most complete assessment made by the Central Bank of the pressures on the factors that impact the forecasted variable, as well of their variability. This document presents the methodology used by the Central Bank of Costa Rica to carry out such assessment in order to generate fan charts with asymmetric error bands for its inflation forecasts. The implementation is based on the seminal works by Britton, Fisher and Whitley (1998) and Blix and Sellin (1998).